Trump Sees Surprising Surge with Women Ahead of Midterms

President Donald Trump just got an unexpected political boost — and it’s coming from a group that hasn’t always been in his corner.

A new Economist/YouGov poll shows Trump’s approval rating among women voters climbing to 39 percent, up four points from last week’s 35 percent. It’s the highest mark he’s hit with women since late May, when he briefly touched 40 percent.

The poll, conducted August 9–11 with a margin of error of 3.5 percent, comes as the White House works to fend off economic jitters, intensifying immigration debates, and Democratic attacks on the president’s “big beautiful bill” — a sweeping package of tax cuts and infrastructure spending that has sharply divided Congress.

A Comeback Narrative

When Trump returned to the Oval Office in January, he was riding high. His opening months were marked by strong polling numbers, particularly among his Republican base. But as gas prices wobbled, inflation concerns mounted, and the administration battled with progressive governors over border security, his ratings — especially with women — dipped sharply over the summer.

That slump hit bottom in early July, when approval among women cratered at 34 percent.

Now, the bounce back is sparking chatter in political circles.

“Don’t Call It a Breakthrough”

“This isn’t a game-changer yet,” warned Columbia University political scientist Robert Y. Shapiro. “One poll can be an outlier. If these higher numbers hold, then yes, it’s significant — but you need to see consistency before calling it a shift in the political winds.”

Others see it as a warning to Democrats.

“Women voters are a make-or-break bloc in competitive races,” political analyst Craig Agranoff told me in an interview. “Trump’s team will look at this and see opportunity. If they can hold this momentum into 2026, it forces Democrats to defend turf they thought was safe.”

Agranoff noted that Trump has historically taken a hardline approach rather than softening rhetoric to court skeptical demographics. “He’s more likely to double down on border security and economic nationalism than pivot to traditional women’s issues,” he said. “But if he finds a way to link those issues to women’s economic security — things like workforce protections or family tax credits — that could change the conversation.”

The 2026 midterms are already shaping up to be a brawl. Democrats want the House and Senate back. Republicans want to expand their grip on both chambers. Women — who vote at higher rates than men — will be central to that fight.

And history shows female approval ratings can make or break a presidency’s coattails. In 2018, women voters helped deliver the House to Democrats. In 2020, their support swung key states toward Joe Biden. In 2022, abortion rights energized women on the left.

Now, in 2025, Trump is betting the economy and immigration will motivate them in the other direction.

Trump’s overall approval in the latest poll sits at 42 percent, with 54 percent disapproving. The women’s bump is small — but it’s in the right direction for the president.

“Four points doesn’t win you an election,” Shapiro cautioned. “But four points, sustained over a year, can flip a few seats. And that might be all Republicans need.”